As Merkel Steps Down, Uncertainty Around Europe’s Future Grows

After almost 16 years in office and at least a decade as Europe’s unquestioned leader, Angela Merkel prepares to step down as German Chancellor in the fall. Throughout her tenure, Merkel has provided steadfast leadership at the EU level. She has defended core EU values, like the rule of law, and has helped Europe navigate numerous complicated periods, most notably the eurozone crisis and the coronavirus pandemic.

Yet as Merkel prepares to leave the stage, the EU’s future looks increasingly uncertain.

Leadership Vacuum

For one, Merkel’s departure will, at least in the short and medium-terms, leave a vacuum that no other EU leader can credibly fill. French President Emmanuel Macron will try, but he is unlikely to succeed. Not only is the French president facing an election next year, but he is also a far more divisive figure, with more ambitious and controversial ideas about EU reform.  He would struggle to fashion the delicate compromises upon which the EU is presently constructed.

Another potential candidate is Italy’s Mario Draghi, the former president of the European Central Bank and a respected veteran of the European political scene. But while Draghi is admired in the halls of Brussels, he remains a technocrat without a political party behind him.

The lack of a clear candidate to fill Merkel’s shoes could make EU politics increasingly fractious as different leaders compete to advance their respective agendas. Signs of this impending future were already clear in June when the Netherland’s leftist Mark Rutte and Hungary’s more right-wing Viktor Orban, the EU’s two longest-serving leaders after Merkel, clashed at the European Council summit over LGTBQ+ rights.

Rule of Law

Even more concerning is the deteriorating state of democracy across Europe that Merkel leaves behind. Over the past decade, several EU governments have chipped away at their countries’ democratic institutions.

This is most evident in Poland and Hungary. In Poland, the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) has overseen an unprecedented assault on its country’s judicial system. It has passed laws hampering the impartial functioning of the courts, rigged the appointment process for judges, established a partisan disciplinary regime for the judiciary, and even punished judges who were critical of these steps. In Hungary, as well, Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s government has titled the electoral playing field, taking control of much of the media and harassing civil society organizations. It is therefore not a complete surprise that, between 2010 and 2020, Freedom House recorded steep declines in both Poland and Hungary’s democracy scores. While Poland went from being labeled a “consolidated democracy” to a “semi-consolidated democracy,” Hungary went from being a “consolidated democracy” to a “transitional/hybrid regime.”

But while Poland and Hungary often get the most attention, numerous other EU member states, including Bulgaria, Romania, Malta, Slovenia, and the Czech Republic, also have serious problems with the rule of law. The integrity of the courts has been repeatedly challenged in all these countries, as has the independence of media outlets and journalists.

The decline of democratic institutions is particularly concerning given Merkel’s impending departure. Throughout her tenure, the German chancellor has been a staunch promoter of democratic values at the EU level. She has also provided steady leadership in the face of illiberal challenges, both from abroad and from within Europe. Without anyone to immediately assume Merkel’s leadership role in Brussels, the EU could be more vulnerable to attacks from non-democratic actors, most notably Russia and China, seeking to influence Europe’s future direction. This has become particularly evident with Russia’s recent meddling through cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns in Europe.

Moreover, Europe’s democratic decline could undermine the effectiveness of EU foreign policy. A core tenet of EU foreign relations is the idea that Europe must promote certain values—i.e., democratic governance, human rights protection, rule of law, etc.—on the international stage. The EU’s ability to do that is severely weakened when certain member states become less committed to those ideals. That is even more so the case with Merkel’s exit, as the leadership vacuum that Merkel will likely leave behind could embolden certain EU member states to try and push European foreign policy in an increasingly illiberal direction.

Conclusion

So, as Merkel prepares to step down as chancellor, the EU’s future looks anything but clear. Not only will Merkel’s departure likely leave a gap in leadership in Brussels that other EU leaders will struggle to fill in the near future, but it could also embolden illiberal EU states to advance their agendas in Brussels.

REFERENCES:

Barigazzi, Jacopo and Herzenhorn, David (2021) “The post-Merkel era begins in Brussels,” POLITICO. Available at: https://www.politico.eu/article/polish-politics-hit-with-by- cyberattack/ [Accessed 4 August 2021]

Cerulus, Laurens (2021) “Polish politicians hit by ‘large-scale’ cyberattack, Russia blamed,” POLITICO. Available at: https://www.politico.eu/article/polish-politics-hit-with-by- cyberattack/ [Accessed 18 August 2021]

Crowcroft, Orlando (2021) “Poland judicial reforms are in breach of European law, court rules,” Euronews. Available at: https://www.euronews.com/2021/07/15/poland-judicial-reforms- are-in-breach-of-european-law-court-rules [Accessed 15 August 2021]

Csaky, Zselyke (2020) “Dropping the Democratic Façade: Nations in Transit 2020,” Freedom House. Available at: https://freedomhouse.org/report/nations-transit/2020/dropping-democratic- facade [Accessed 17 August 2021]

Davies, Christian (2018) “Hostile Takeover: How Law and Justice Captured Poland’s Courts,” Freedom House. Available at: https://freedomhouse.org/report/analytical-brief/2018/hostile- takeover-how-law-and-justice-captured-polands-courts [Accessed 6 August 2021]

Smale, Alison and Erlanger, Steven (2016) “As Obama Exits World Stage, Angela Merkel May Be the Liberal West’s Last Defender,” The New York Times. Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/13/world/europe/germany-merkel-trump-election.html [Accessed 19 August 2021]

The Economist (2021) “How Viktor Orban hollowed out Hungary’s democracy,” The Economist. Available at: https://www.economist.com/briefing/2019/08/29/how-viktor-orban-hollowed- out-hungarys-democracy [Accessed 23 August 2021]