Has the War in Afghanistan Made the US an Unreliable Ally?
The War in Afghanistan known to be the “forever war” or considered the longest war the US has ever fought is set to end on 31st August 2021 (Borger, 2021) (Williams, 2021). The ending will come after an announced withdrawal by the Biden administration. President Biden believed that the US should move away from a nation-building approach and that more years of fighting would not achieve anything (Doucet, 2021) (Scahill, 2021). Despite this, many critics have argued that officially withdrawing from Afghanistan could result in undoing much of the progress achieved through the war. Since the beginning, the war in Afghanistan has been led by the United States. Throughout the period the US had been backed by a shifting coalition which included roles for the UN, NATO and other individual host nations. However, ultimate control over the war has still lied in US hands (Wildman and Bennis, 2010: 469). Therefore, any withdrawal from the US would effectively end the war. Some of the criticisms made on withdrawing have included the loss of democratic aspirations and an unravelling of women’s and girl’s rights within parts of the country taken over by the Taliban. Since 2004, Afghanistan has regularly held presidential and parliamentary elections with turnouts as high as 45% (Coll, 2009). Moreover, women have been able to participate in the political, economic, and social life of the country (Amnesty, 2021). Losing achievements like these have left many wondering within the international community whether US withdrawal is making them an unreliable ally.
The Loss of Democratic and Women’s Rights
Since 2001, the lives of women and girls in Afghanistan have improved significantly and withdrawing would be considered neglecting them. Under Taliban rule before 2001, women were forced to wear the burka, banned from all forms of education, beaten in public and required to always have a male chaperone (Amnesty, 2014) (Janjua, 2019). However, the situation in Afghanistan for some people’s rights had improved particularly in regard to women and girls. After the defeat of the Taliban the country saw the highest school enrolment rate in history, with more than 4.3 million children in primary and secondary schools in 2003, of which a third were girls (Reddy, 2014: 126). Moreover, 54% of girls under 18 were married which led to a high deathrate for deaths during pregnancy and childbirth. Today, women make up 27% of the Afghan parliament therefore a return to the Taliban ruling Afghanistan would be a step backwards for women and girl’s rights within the country (Reddy, 2014: 126). The Taliban gaining back control of Afghanistan would also mark the end of democratic rule in favour of an authoritarian government (Shah, 2011; 458). Nevertheless, this still does not negate the point that the Taliban are not likely to disappear any time soon and a US withdrawal from Afghanistan will never have an appropriate time (Kugelman, 2021). Therefore, despite huge progress made in improving the livelihoods and rights of many women and upholding democratic values it is unlikely to be able to maintain these improvements without a huge cost.
The Cost of War
Afghanistan is a difficult place to control and rebuild as it is mountainous and mostly rural (Thomas, 2018: 505). The population is fractured among several ethnic groups and local communities often operate autonomously (Siddique, 2012: 5-6). The Biden administration has taken the view that there is never going to be a perfect time to withdraw so now would be as any good time to remove troops (Sanger and Shear, 2021). The US has spent over a trillion dollars waiting for the perfect time to withdraw and despite other administrations promising to leave, little progress had been made to withdraw until recently (Sanger and Shear, 2021). US forces have suffered more than 2,300 deaths and around 20,660 soldiers injured in action. As for Afghanistan, 64,100 soldiers have been killed and the country has had 111,000 civilian casualties (BBC News, 2021). The continued cycle of expanding or extending military presence in Afghanistan to create ideal conditions for a withdrawal has not worked. Furthermore, the Taliban have around 60,000-85,000 full time soldiers and they control around 30-50% of Afghanistan. They traditionally have been based mainly in rural areas but recently have been venturing into urban strongholds that has made the Afghan government in a much weaker state (Maizland, 2021). Furthermore, the gradual withdrawal of US troops has accelerated this process.
Source: Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), 2017
The continual reduction in US troops within Afghanistan has made US capabilities against the Taliban less effective. The Taliban are not an easy force to beat and forces in the past have struggled to contend with their military tactics. According to Al Qaida observers, the Taliban have a developed doctrine in employing roughly platoon-sized forces to conduct probing attacks for intelligence gathering and use it to their advantage when developing a ‘combat situation’ (Liebl, 2012: 542). The maximum use of tactical and operational surprise was a dominant feature of these probing attacks and had a clearly articulated desire to minimize casualties (Liebl, 2012: 542). In addition, much of the expectation for victory or successful resistance is based on faith, not actual capability. (Liebl, 2012: 544) Overall, despite US capabilities, victories against the Taliban come at huge cost and is unlikely to pay off in the long run.
Taliban Capabilities
Historically, the Taliban have provided a haven for international terrorists and was one of the original reasons for the invasion in the first place. If the US were to leave Afghanistan some allies would see the country once again as potential threat. Many western politicians have argued that a withdrawal and a potential return to Taliban rule could spell future acts of terrorism (Gardner, 2021). Nevertheless, world leaders and scholars have also argued that this might not necessarily be the case. There is an argument that the Taliban may struggle to govern if it was to ever try and take back power (Gramer, 2021). If one was to judge the Taliban’s historical record on its ability to govern, their record would not fare well. According to Ibrahimi, Afghanistan during Taliban rule from 1996-2001 which was called the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) faced a number of governance problems (2017: 947). The problems caused so much difficulty that governing for the Taliban was almost impossible. One of the major issues included having essentially a two-track governance system, a political-military leadership council called the Supreme Council in Kandahar, and an executive bureau called the Council of Ministers in Kabul. The Taliban was represented as an insurgent group under the Supreme Council, while the Council of Ministers reflected the group’s efforts to transform into a state structure. The two-track system caused contention between the two branches and made it difficult to establish a monopoly of violence. Overall, due to the contention the IEA lacked legitimacy, had poor authority, and was incapable of producing basic services (Ibrahimi, 2017: 948). Therefore, if Taliban control was to ever mimic its past attempt to form a government it would fail to remain in control of the country.
To conclude, the US has struggled for the past two decades to succeed in removing the Taliban within Afghanistan. Even if it is likely that the Taliban will succeed in taking over the entire country, it does not necessarily mean that a functioning government will come to fruition. Lastly, the improvement on human and democratic rights within the country will be a great and unfortunate humanitarian loss but this does not negate the fact that maintaining these successes will come at an immense cost of life that sees no end in sight.
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