How Lukashenko’s next move could depend on Putin’s decision

On May 23, Belarusian air traffic control rerouted Ryanair Flight 4978 from its original destination of Vilnius, Lithuania, to Minsk, Belarus. The authorities in Minsk claimed that they had received a bomb threat from Hamas, clearly in reference to the tensions at the time between the Palestine-based organization and Israel. However, once the flight landed, a dissident journalist, Roman Protasevich, along with his girlfriend, were detained by members of the KGB. No explosives were found upon inspection of the Boeing 737. Government officials from the United States, European Union, and United Kingdom were swift to condemn the diversion of the Ryanair flight by blasting the government of Alexander Lukashenko for committing what is tantamount to air piracy.

This incident only builds onto the growing international pressure on the Lukashenko government, which began in earnest following the 2020 presidential election that the international observers criticized as invalid. Lukashenko has increasingly seen himself backed into a corner, unable to turn to Europe for partnership. However, Lukashenko’s policies seem to signal a desire to return to a bipolar world, not a multilateral one. As he feels a greater need to retain his power, he has ratcheted up policies of repression, and doubled down on his Russophilic tendencies.

Vladimir Putin has reciprocated this feeling, allowing Belarus to come closer into its own camp. On May 30, Al Jazeera reported that Russia, despite the international condemnation of the Lukashenko administration, will continue with a $500 million loan to Belarus, which is part of a $1.5 billion package pledged to Lukashenko following the 2020 street protest movement in Belarus. Apart from economic support, there seems to be genuine bonhomie between the two leaders; The Week characterized the Sochi summit in late May between the two men as “bro-ing out”.

The question on the minds of many is what will come of these meetings, and more broadly, what is Lukashenko’s next move? One key resource that Lukashenko may leverage is his country’s exports of refined petroleum products. Belarus exports nearly a billion dollars of various fuels, of which refined petroleum is a crucial part.

This export could be leveraged, particularly against neighboring states such as Ukraine. However, this is unlikely to result in large-scale economic turmoil or shortages in the recipients of Belarusian exports. Indeed, cutting off exports would harm Belarus far more than any other nation. For this reason, a far more important factor regarding resources is the massive importation of natural gas from Russia. Belarus imports most of its natural gas from Russia. Additionally, the Russian energy conglomerate Gazprom holds a majority stake in Beltransgaz, the Belarusian company which operates the nation’s gas pipelines. While resources and economics are not the only determinant of a nation’s foreign policy, the economic factor aligns with the ideological support that Mr. Putin seems willing to give to Mr. Lukashenko.

Lukashenko’s further isolation leaves him with one friend: Vladimir Putin

Putin serves as a vital economic lifeline to Lukashenko’s Belarus, which allows Putin to distance himself from Lukashenko at will and draw him in when it suits the foreign policy objectives of the Russian Federation. Currently, Putin sees an opportunity in taking advantage of Lukashenko, who has become more internationally ostracized than ever. By leveraging Belarus’ position in Europe, Putin could potentially create a counterpoint to NATO and EU expansion in the Baltic States by placing military bases closer to Europe’s center.

However, Putin could potentially begin to see Lukashenko as more of a risk than an asset. There has been increasing talks of sanctioning both Belarus and Russia for the Ryanair interception, which could lead Putin to create distance between himself and Lukashenko. While Putin is no stranger to enduring sanctions from the West, the effect they have had on the Russian economy is drastic — since mid-June 2014, the ruble has lost half of its value relative to the U.S. Dollar. With a growing opposition movement, Putin may be hesitant to act in a way that would ratchet up sanctions further.

While it is a mistake to assume that Lukashenko will simply do Putin’s bidding, he is forced, due to his geopolitically fragile position, to react to Putin’s choices and preferences, and is limited in proactive approaches to normalizing relations with other nations. His closeness to Putin is a double-edged sword, as it allows him to continue wielding power but also alienate Lukashenko due to Putin’s own isolation from Western nations. For instance, Belarus suspended all fuel exports to Ukraine, a nation which is a notorious thorn in Mr. Putin’s side. One can view this development in a number of ways. It may be an attempt to curry favor with Putin, or a response (independent of Putin) to Ukraine suspending flights with Belarus following the interception of the RyanAir flight.

So what is Lukashenko’s next move? It wholly depends on the actions of Putin, and whether or not he views keeping Lukashenko afloat is worth the international pressure. More likely, Putin will continue the current course as it stabilizes Lukashenko and allows Putin to create the perception in the Western mind of the two as closer than they are. This approach allows Putin to create some fear in the West, as an alliance between the two would move Russian-linked troops ever closer to the central mass of Europe. Lukashenko, at the present time, is a tree alone in a field, and Putin is a gust of wind.