Russian Domestic Pressures and the Current State of US-Russian Relations
The United States has seen the end of Donald Trump’s controversial presidency with his electoral defeat in November 2020. The past four years have been riddled with scathing headlines revolving around the former US president. This includes his unique approach to Russia. The Trump administration endured claims of ‘collusion’ over the 2016 US election and foreign policy malpractice over the isolation of NATO allies.
During Trump’s time in office he often appeared to befriend Putin, whilst also downplaying the threat Russia poses to the United States and the West. However, his administration continued to sanction Putin’s Russia, also considering Russia a top threat in the 2017 National Security Strategy. Throughout his tenure, Trump was unable to improve relations and ultimately failed to confront Russia in a meaningful way. The Biden administration is now tasked with handling the tense bilateral relations. A new approach when confronting Russia is required, especially when working to develop a unified Western response.
‘Return to Normalcy’
As the Biden administration seeks to present the global community with a ‘return to normalcy’, Europe has already begun adapting to the world Trump created during his presidency. During this period Trump led the United States on a policy of ‘America First’ and isolated many traditional allies in the process. This forced Europe to begin to comprehend a world in which the United States did not lead on all fronts. Consequently, this has now led to a new reality where Europe has taken its own unique route towards confronting Russia. The new route could pose headaches for the Biden administration in areas of policy that do not exactly align with the United States.
Part of this tension in trans-Atlantic cooperation stems from the fact that both France and Germany appear to be on a different path than the United States. This is the case when it comes to confronting Russia, which indicates a more independent partnership between the US and other Western countries when confronting potential issues.
Liminal Warfare
Russia has adapted to new 21st century styles of warfare by abstaining from acts that would lead to overt conflict. Instead, Russia has operated in an ambiguous zone that has caused problems for its adversaries. David Kilcullen, the Australian military theorist, has termed this method as ‘liminal warfare,’. According to Kilcullen, this is the threshold-manipulation or use of ambiguous actions to achieve favorable outcomes for Russia, but not enough to cause an overt military response. Kilcullen argues that US supremacy climaxed early on in the War on Terror and the resulting ‘forever wars’ highlighted the limits of US military superiority.
This type of warfare benefits traditionally weaker powers, like Russia, when up against great powers, like the United States. However, while Russia appears to have adapted to compete against military superior opponents, its biggest weakness is still as apparent as ever—domestic politics.
Russian Domestic Politics
Democracies tend to be more resilient against opposing political views, and this is an area where Russia is lacking. Putin’s approval rating has dropped 4 percentage points from February 2020-February 2021. This comes at a time where the global pandemic and Alexi Navalny, the Russian opposition leader, have disrupted Putin’s domestic image.
Navalny has a large following from younger Russians on social media with many being in their early 20’s or younger. This could pose serious problems for Putin down the road even with his attempts to silence Navalny. While Navalny is currently serving a prison sentence, in a penal colony east of Moscow, it is obvious that many young Russians are unsatisfied with the current state of Russian domestic politics.
Conclusion
This indicates that Russia is no less fragile than its adversaries in the West and, if exploited strategically, can shift the current trajectory of US-Russian and EU-Russian relations. The United States and the West broadly need to implement the same information operations that Russia has used to exploit their weaknesses. They need to break through the same Russian firewall that helped Navalny and others reach the younger generation of Russians. The United States and the West must work collaboratively to confront the threat that Russia presents and exploit the weaknesses that are apparent in Russian domestic politics.
References
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