January 29, 2019

Survey on Guaidó’s Self-Declaration as Venezuelan President

By Emma Raiteri

Juan Guaidó, the 35-year-old leader of the opposition in Venezuela and head of the National Assembly, declared himself as acting, interim president of Venezuela. This move came after Nicolas Maduro was sworn into his second term as President, following an election process which many have called undemocratic. Venezuela’s crisis has been characterised by massive inflation – predicted by the IMF to reach 10,000,000% this year – and has caused one of the largest humanitarian crises in the Western hemisphere. The struggle between Maduro and Guaidó will depend greatly on international recognition of the latter, who has been recognised by the US, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay and Peru. Russia, China, Cuba and Turkey continue recognising Maduro.

Juan Guaido

Self-declaration as President, 23/01/2019
-2
Does the decision ameliorate the stability of the international system as a whole or does it lead to greater instability and increased tension?
+ 3Strong increase in international stability + 2Moderate increase in international stability + 1Slight increase in international stability 0No change in international stability - 1Slight decrease in international stability - 2Moderate decrease in international stability - 3Strong decrease in international stability
-3
Is the decision durable and are there the necessary resources to maintain it over an extended period of time?
+ 3Highly sustainability + 2Moderately sustainability + 1Slightly sustainability 0Neutral - 1Slightly unsustainability - 2Moderately unsustainability - 3Strongly unsustainability
2
What are the chances that the decision will achieve its prefixed outcome?
+ 3High rate of success + 2Moderate rate of success + 1Slight rate of success 0Neutral - 1Slight rate of failure - 2Moderate rate of failure - 3High rate of failure
-3
How large is the gamble involved in the decision and how drastic would the impact be if the outcome were negative?
+ 3Highly safe + 2Moderately safe + 1Slightly safe 0Neutral - 1Slightly risky - 2Moderately risky - 3Highly risky
-1
Was the decision made along with a larger framework of actors and/or institutional arrangements?
+ 3Highly cooperative + 2Moderately cooperative + 1Slightly cooperative 0Neutral - 1Slightly uncooperative - 2Moderately uncooperative - 3Highly uncooperative
1
Does the decision acknowledge, consider and respect the interests and identities of other parties?
+ 3Highly inclusive + 2Moderately inclusive + 1Slightly inclusive 0Neutral - 1Slightly exclusive - 2Moderately exclusive - 3Highly exclusive
2
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