January 20, 2020

Survey on Mike Pompeo’s Announcement of Incoming U.S. Pressure on Maduro Government

By Imad Coulibaly

On Monday the 20th of January Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó met with U.S Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Bogota. Pompeo reiterated U.S support for Guaidó asserting that America was “not done” and that further action against Maduro was incoming. The Secretary of State was cryptic and ambiguous as to the nature of the incoming actions, but he sought to reassure the Venezuelan people that they had not been forgotten. In leaving the country, Guaidó defied a travel ban imposed on him by the Government due to his role in sparking domestic protests against the regime. 11 months after his condemnation of Maduro, the Venezuelan crisis is still ongoing and Guaidó prepares to attend the World Economic Forum in Davos where he will, most probably, seek further foreign support against Maduro’s regime. Despite the humanitarian and refugee emergencies generated by the Venezuelan crisis, Guaidó can certainly count on an America “determined to deliver” an outcome comprising the ousting of Nicolás Maduro.

 

 

Mike Pompeo

Pompeo-Guaidó Meeting in Bogotà, 20/01/2020
1
Does the decision ameliorate the stability of the international system as a whole or does it lead to greater instability and increased tension?
+ 3Strong increase in international stability + 2Moderate increase in international stability + 1Slight increase in international stability 0No change in international stability - 1Slight decrease in international stability - 2Moderate decrease in international stability - 3Strong decrease in international stability
2
Is the decision durable and are there the necessary resources to maintain it over an extended period of time?
+ 3Highly sustainability + 2Moderately sustainability + 1Slightly sustainability 0Neutral - 1Slightly unsustainability - 2Moderately unsustainability - 3Strongly unsustainability
1
What are the chances that the decision will achieve its prefixed outcome?
+ 3High rate of success + 2Moderate rate of success + 1Slight rate of success 0Neutral - 1Slight rate of failure - 2Moderate rate of failure - 3High rate of failure
1
How large is the gamble involved in the decision and how drastic would the impact be if the outcome were negative?
+ 3Highly safe + 2Moderately safe + 1Slightly safe 0Neutral - 1Slightly risky - 2Moderately risky - 3Highly risky
0
Was the decision made along with a larger framework of actors and/or institutional arrangements?
+ 3Highly cooperative + 2Moderately cooperative + 1Slightly cooperative 0Neutral - 1Slightly uncooperative - 2Moderately uncooperative - 3Highly uncooperative
-1
Does the decision acknowledge, consider and respect the interests and identities of other parties?
+ 3Highly inclusive + 2Moderately inclusive + 1Slightly inclusive 0Neutral - 1Slightly exclusive - 2Moderately exclusive - 3Highly exclusive
1
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