Survey on the Russian Seizure of Ukrainian Ships in the Sea of Azov
Russia has seized two Ukrainian gunboats and a tug after opening fire on them. Six sailors were wounded, and the crew is currently being held captive. Russia’s FSB claims that it was forced to capture the vessels because they had illegally entered their territorial waters. The head of NATO, as well as most EU states have denounced this move. Nikki Haley, former US ambassador to the UN, described the incident as an “outrageous violation of sovereign Ukrainian territory” and “another reckless Russian escalation”.
Vladimir Putin
Kerch Strait Incident, 26/11/2018
-3
Does the decision ameliorate the stability of the international system as a whole or does it lead to greater instability and increased tension?
+ 3Strong increase in international stability
+ 2Moderate increase in international stability
+ 1Slight increase in international stability
0No change in international stability
- 1Slight decrease in international stability
- 2Moderate decrease in international stability
- 3Strong decrease in international stability
-1
Is the decision durable and are there the necessary resources to maintain it over an extended period of time?
+ 3Highly sustainability
+ 2Moderately sustainability
+ 1Slightly sustainability
0Neutral
- 1Slightly unsustainability
- 2Moderately unsustainability
- 3Strongly unsustainability
1
What are the chances that the decision will achieve its prefixed outcome?
+ 3High rate of success
+ 2Moderate rate of success
+ 1Slight rate of success
0Neutral
- 1Slight rate of failure
- 2Moderate rate of failure
- 3High rate of failure
3
How large is the gamble involved in the decision and how drastic would the impact be if the outcome were negative?
+ 3Highly safe
+ 2Moderately safe
+ 1Slightly safe
0Neutral
- 1Slightly risky
- 2Moderately risky
- 3Highly risky
-3
Was the decision made along with a larger framework of actors and/or institutional arrangements?
+ 3Highly cooperative
+ 2Moderately cooperative
+ 1Slightly cooperative
0Neutral
- 1Slightly uncooperative
- 2Moderately uncooperative
- 3Highly uncooperative
-3
Does the decision acknowledge, consider and respect the interests and identities of other parties?
+ 3Highly inclusive
+ 2Moderately inclusive
+ 1Slightly inclusive
0Neutral
- 1Slightly exclusive
- 2Moderately exclusive
- 3Highly exclusive
-1
