January 12, 2020

Survey on the Libyan National Army Declaration of a Conditional Ceasefire

By Imad Coulibaly

On Saturday the 11th of January the Libyan National Army – loyal to General Khalifa Haftar- announced a conditional ceasefire that would commence on Sunday at 10:01 GMT. The ceasefire will take effect provided the other warring parties, namely those aligned with the internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA), abide by it.  Echoing a Turkish communiqué made earlier during the week, on Saturday Angela Merkel and Vladimir Putin met in Moscow and, amidst other foreign policy issues, made a plea calling for the warring parties to end all hostilities. The ceasefire comes over 8 months after Khalifa’s offensive on Tripoli in an attempt to defeat the GNA and has been praised and welcomed by the international scene in preparation for the UN-led Berlin Peace Conference on Libya.

Khalifa Haftar

Libyan National Army announce conditional ceasefire, 11/01/2020
2
Does the decision ameliorate the stability of the international system as a whole or does it lead to greater instability and increased tension?
+ 3Strong increase in international stability + 2Moderate increase in international stability + 1Slight increase in international stability 0No change in international stability - 1Slight decrease in international stability - 2Moderate decrease in international stability - 3Strong decrease in international stability
1
Is the decision durable and are there the necessary resources to maintain it over an extended period of time?
+ 3Highly sustainability + 2Moderately sustainability + 1Slightly sustainability 0Neutral - 1Slightly unsustainability - 2Moderately unsustainability - 3Strongly unsustainability
2
What are the chances that the decision will achieve its prefixed outcome?
+ 3High rate of success + 2Moderate rate of success + 1Slight rate of success 0Neutral - 1Slight rate of failure - 2Moderate rate of failure - 3High rate of failure
0
How large is the gamble involved in the decision and how drastic would the impact be if the outcome were negative?
+ 3Highly safe + 2Moderately safe + 1Slightly safe 0Neutral - 1Slightly risky - 2Moderately risky - 3Highly risky
0
Was the decision made along with a larger framework of actors and/or institutional arrangements?
+ 3Highly cooperative + 2Moderately cooperative + 1Slightly cooperative 0Neutral - 1Slightly uncooperative - 2Moderately uncooperative - 3Highly uncooperative
1
Does the decision acknowledge, consider and respect the interests and identities of other parties?
+ 3Highly inclusive + 2Moderately inclusive + 1Slightly inclusive 0Neutral - 1Slightly exclusive - 2Moderately exclusive - 3Highly exclusive
2
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