The Importance of Quantum Technologies in International Affairs

Although quantum technologies are still in the early research-and-development phase, their future application promises to give substantial benefits to a wide range of fields, from financial services to scientific research. Military operations and national security are likely to be affected too, due to their potential to give some sort of advantages to the military forces capable of mastering and integrating them within existing defense doctrines and weapons systems. Quantum key distribution/cryptanalysis, quantum metrology/sensing and quantum computing are the three most important ‘branches’ of quantum technologies capable of making a significant impact in military terms (IISS).

Most notably, quantum key distribution and quantum cryptanalysis are likely to change the way classified information is processed. While the former is set to guarantee a higher level of security, the latter will make cracking even the highest level of encrypted communication possible. Something that would take billions of years for current computers to do. Considering the importance of intelligence and secret information for diplomacy and military, having secure communication channels and being able to encrypt other countries’ intelligence, as well as the civil society (corporations, personal accounts, banks etc.), will represent a huge tactical and operational advantage. Quantum sensing/metrology is another promising field where military technology can be applied. Its importance lays in its ability to immensely improve measurements, whereby, for instance, radars and sensors can greatly enhance their capacity to detect low-observable aircraft, submarines and underground facilities. Last but not least, quantum computers will have a more powerful calculation capacity than current computers and they would be able to develop larger-scale military simulation and solve complex problems in fields like engineering, chemistry and artificial intelligence much quicker. These advancements could boost a country’s industrial and scientific prowess.

Given all these promising benefits and the national prestige of having such technologies, it is no surprise then if all the great powers are investing a significant amount of money in this field. As history shows, the ability to adapt to technological changes is crucial in geopolitics and might determine the fate of nations and their place in the international order. Failure to adapts to these changes can result in the deterioration of a country’s geopolitical power. Equally important is the rapidity on which this adaption occurs so to set the rules and acquire an early dominance in the market. In military terms, it will be crucial to produce strategies and guidelines on the adoption and integration of quantum technologies in national defense systems, especially in relation to cybersecurity and quantum sensing. For example, if other countries will be able to detect the low-observable nuclear submarines and military aircraft, much of the Western (relative) military superiority and deterrence capability will be put into question. However, it is still unclear and too early to understand how precisely these technological changes will affect military operations and how they might ultimately alter the balance of power among nations.

Therefore, as the geopolitical competition between Washington and Beijing intensifies, the importance of quantum technologies for military, scientific and economic superiority is getting growing attention. Above all, the United States and China are currently leading in this race, even though it is very difficult to assess the exact number of their investments since many are made by private corporations and China keeps a certain secrecy about it. It is then too early to understand which country will emerge as the winner. Both of them reached quantum supremacy, which is the demonstrated ability of a quantum computer to calculate and solve problems much faster than traditional computers, but each country has different strengths. The US is an early innovator in this field and its armed forces have already spent a considerable amount of resources and time to integrate quantum communication and sensing in their structures. The US’ strength lays particularly in quantum computing (44,8 % of scientific citations worldwide) with private companies such as IBM, Google and Honeywell being the global leaders in the sector and the first to reach quantum supremacy (Kurek Michel, 2020). On the other hand, through its prime defense company, China Electronics Technology Group Corporation, China claimed to have built a prototype quantum radar that is capable of detecting low-observable aircraft. Besides, in 2016 China sent a quantum satellite into space, which since then has helped the development of quantum encrypted communication (MIT Technology Review). A major difference is that in the United States, investments come primarily from the private sector while China has an approach that is more state-oriented.

Other countries, most notably Canada, Japan, Russia and the EU member states, are also significant players that should be taken into consideration. Canada-based D-Wave has been the first company to sell a quantum computer commercially in 2011 and Japan’s strength lays primarily in the high number of patent applications. The EU member states, despite being a relative latecomer, have strong scientific expertise and a thriving startup environment for quantum technologies. Besides, the EU is now pouring considerable amount of money with its EU one-billion-flagship in addition to various national programmes, like Germany’s which committed more than 2 billion euros (E&T Editorial). Russia too has invested significantly in these new technologies as it hopes to remain among the great powers, even though it seems to lack behind the United States and China.

Hence, despite the enormous scientific and engineering challenges, the marathon for the mastery of quantum technologies has just begun, and it is too early to foresee the results. Nonetheless, big countries such as the United States and China have an advantage in the long term due to their initial push, bigger funding opportunities, global ambitions of power and larger demographics. Their rivalry will play a major role in the development of these technologies, which in turn will help to determine their superpower status and role in the world.

Bibliography:

Middleton, Andrew, e Stephen Till. «Quantum Information Processing Landscape 2020: Prospects for UK Defence and Security», s.d., 144.Qureca. «Overview on Quantum Initiatives Worldwide», 7 September 2020. https://www.qureca.com/overview-on-quantum-initiatives-worldwide/.

IISS. «Quantum Computing and Defence». Consulted 20 May 2021. https://www.iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance/the-military-balance-2019/quantum-computing-and-defence.Deloitte Insights. «The Realist’s Guide to Quantum Technology and National Security». Consulted 20 May 2021. https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/public-sector/the-impact-of-quantum-technology-on-national-security.html.MIT Technology Review. «The US and China Are in a Quantum Arms Race That Will Transform Warfare».

Consulted 20 May 2021. https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/01/03/137969/us-china-quantum-arms-race/.Kurek, Michel. «Patents, Publications and Investments in Quantum Technologies». SSRN Scholarly Paper.

Rochester, NY: Social Science Research Network, 20 September 2020. https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3734185.
E&T editorial. «Germany to Invest €2bn in Building First Quantum Computer», 11 May 2021.

https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2021/05/germany-to-invest-2bn-in-building-first-quantum-computer/.